We are not out of the wood, yet

One year and 4 months on. News scattering  all around the world is just about Covid-19.Remember last year the very first case announce in Indonesia. 

This year we see little light at the end of the tunnel. We all think it's soon gonna left behind us, as the case stabilize. We are then introduce to new normal and embrace for start our normal daily life once again. Offices even prepare for the new normal work arrangement.We hopes soon all activity can be resume, be it dining out, sport events, and entertainment.

Dining, hanging out, sports image can only be retrieved from our old photos collection

Here we are now. At the time I write this, we are mid of climbing to new record high both new cases and death rate. New varian are being detected spread among these original ones and claimed to be more infectious. Oxygen we breath has become a rare commodity. Can you name which fiction movie has become true ?

There is not all negativity. Vaccines comes to save the day and bring little bit hope to us all. Luckily the vaccine rollout is very fast (even compare to more develop nations), despite the case are soaring community here are calmer, more prepared and most importantly still able to earn for live.

 Maybe this is is just new way of life. Just like the companion on the PI's boat, the tiger is the reminder for us to stay alert, stay safe, and stay healthy. Those peaceful and mask-less day is thing in the past. And we're not expect to do the same, at least in the near future.  

COVID-19, a reset button to the world

As older millennial, I have enjoy decades of peace and prosperity. In old days villager boy grow up by the river in remote area of Sumatera did not have luxury of electricity, cars of any big city would enjoy. 
But we never called ourselves as poor, under-developed, and we never self-pity. Grew up strong and happy, and against all odd found out able to survive and thrive.

Over the years I started to understand, the economic growth is not as smooth as childhood dreams.
Expert of the world has predicted every 10 years there would be economic downturn, and every 20 or so years there would be major changes of world political direction. There was global economic crisis around 1990s which I'm still too you to understand. Then the hard-hit economic crisis 1997-1998 across Asia, including Indonesia which causing the country major political turmoils. 2007-2008 also US debt crisis impact to most country across Asia and Europe.

Since then, we all who have invested in bonds, stock, forex, should have enjoyed proper (read: exponential) yield. Ten years has passed since last crisis. Experts predicted there would be recession in next few months. Economic downturn signal has shown in several sectors in US and EU. That was before the new corona virus COVID-19 comes into picture.

A CDC computer rendering of the surface of SARS-CoV-2, the virus strain that causes COVID-19.

Now the bigger cycle called centennial plague, happen every 100 years or so. Through out the history, mankind challenged by diseases causing mass casualties.
The year 2020 is just like perfect storm. We already worried about recession, adding COVID-19 strikes right at he heart of world manufacturing sites (China).

We still at the early stage of the storm. SARS last for 9 months - 1 years. MERS 6 months. COVID-19 has only started 3 months since outbreak. This time nothing like past times. The global scales and the economy impact of the event still unaccounted. 

Just like a reset button, it sets new baseline for sectors of our life. Supply chain interrupted with city lock downs and decreases of demand. Suddenly everything need to be slowed down. Government postpone development plans and instead, assign the budget more to COVID relieve efforts. Factory and offices are closed. People had to work from and forced stay at home. Activity that supposed lift up community spirit such as music and sport events also being cancelled.

It bring huge impact to our earth, to climate and pollution, since less cars on the road, less tree to be chop down, and less mine pit to be dig.
To remind us what is matter us the most. To remind us what is sufficient. 
Because we simply cannot grow forever, sometimes need take a break. 
As it only a break, NOT A STOP, we all will bounce back, grow stronger with new paradigm, using new and more disruptive way on marketing, channel and technology.  



Reference.

Ray Dalio - Big Debt Crises (2018)