COVID-19, a reset button to the world

As older millennial, I have enjoy decades of peace and prosperity. In old days villager boy grow up by the river in remote area of Sumatera did not have luxury of electricity, cars of any big city would enjoy. 
But we never called ourselves as poor, under-developed, and we never self-pity. Grew up strong and happy, and against all odd found out able to survive and thrive.

Over the years I started to understand, the economic growth is not as smooth as childhood dreams.
Expert of the world has predicted every 10 years there would be economic downturn, and every 20 or so years there would be major changes of world political direction. There was global economic crisis around 1990s which I'm still too you to understand. Then the hard-hit economic crisis 1997-1998 across Asia, including Indonesia which causing the country major political turmoils. 2007-2008 also US debt crisis impact to most country across Asia and Europe.

Since then, we all who have invested in bonds, stock, forex, should have enjoyed proper (read: exponential) yield. Ten years has passed since last crisis. Experts predicted there would be recession in next few months. Economic downturn signal has shown in several sectors in US and EU. That was before the new corona virus COVID-19 comes into picture.

A CDC computer rendering of the surface of SARS-CoV-2, the virus strain that causes COVID-19.

Now the bigger cycle called centennial plague, happen every 100 years or so. Through out the history, mankind challenged by diseases causing mass casualties.
The year 2020 is just like perfect storm. We already worried about recession, adding COVID-19 strikes right at he heart of world manufacturing sites (China).

We still at the early stage of the storm. SARS last for 9 months - 1 years. MERS 6 months. COVID-19 has only started 3 months since outbreak. This time nothing like past times. The global scales and the economy impact of the event still unaccounted. 

Just like a reset button, it sets new baseline for sectors of our life. Supply chain interrupted with city lock downs and decreases of demand. Suddenly everything need to be slowed down. Government postpone development plans and instead, assign the budget more to COVID relieve efforts. Factory and offices are closed. People had to work from and forced stay at home. Activity that supposed lift up community spirit such as music and sport events also being cancelled.

It bring huge impact to our earth, to climate and pollution, since less cars on the road, less tree to be chop down, and less mine pit to be dig.
To remind us what is matter us the most. To remind us what is sufficient. 
Because we simply cannot grow forever, sometimes need take a break. 
As it only a break, NOT A STOP, we all will bounce back, grow stronger with new paradigm, using new and more disruptive way on marketing, channel and technology.  



Reference.

Ray Dalio - Big Debt Crises (2018)

Mobile Platform war

Global economy is slowing down, but tech company and consortium seems not going to slow down their research for next generation mobile device platform.

Mobile platform is not as simple as just OS. But it more to whole system how it interact with user, security, how it connect to any protocol and service.

The platform leads market now is Symbian. Motored by Nokia with its S60, now symbian devices can be found also on other brand, like LG and Samsung. With a very user friendly interface and consume low processing power, this platform is most available on most middle class handset now.

Windows Mobile is emerging from WinCE, now become a mature platform that adopted by some high end smartphone brand, like HTC, O2, DOPOD, some Samsung Pda phone and now Sony Ericsson on its Xperia X1. Backed by user using Windows on their PC, the creator expect user will find it easier to enjoy Windows Mobile.

There are proprietary system develop by each manufacturer, but since maintained by single vendor only, no much application for download and improvement we can expect. But as it implemented on most lower-end handset, these platform still have big portion in the market. Apple Iphone, in my opinion, is in this category also, as it single vendor maintain and very-closed system.

The latest but feared to be next leader, is Google's architech Android. Android believed will be the next generation platform since it design and created based on latest mobile and internet technology. Still some years to come before this platform is widely available on market, especially when economy crisis strike like now.

Jakarta-centric Economy

It's been more than ten years after the Asia monetary crisis passed. Some countries that suffering from the crisis has been rise even more strength than before. But for country like Indonesia, it's like a never ending crisis.

After ten years, it's not toward to a better direction. Even more, it's worsen. Of course there's several public sector has been recovered. Economist like to use modern-based economy indicator to calculate the recovery, like stock index and infrastructure development in Jakarta. But Indonesia is not just Jakarta. There are more than 90% still depend on agriculture and other primary sector to support their income.

Where the space is supposed for 2-3 million inhabitant, Jakarta now home to almost 10 million people not to mention those commuter that work in the city and live in urban area nearby.
The economic activity is so intensive that almost everything people done here, is because of money. Money is the only incentive.

That phenomenon caused Jakarta become the center of everything. From the wealthiest businessmen, until poorest urban family. From businesses head quarter, government main offices, until mafia bosses. And for people like me, the middle class worker, just looking some opportunity in between.

With some skill, and a little bit luck, people can easily find jobs. But one job sometime can simply cant afford live in Jakarta. But to be successful, people here should has a good relation, and lot of luck, not just skill. Because those only work by the technical skill can only survive but only those has extraordinary bullshit skill can survive and get profit more than it's effort.

Jakarta's Flood : Regular Visitor

This planet's climate now changing to a state that our planet has never facing before. As the human population increases, thus there will require more resources also cause more waste that might lead instability of planet metabolism, in direct or indirect way.

One of the hot topic is global warming. And as it goes warmer, it also lead to climate instability, some are extreme. This anomaly, makes weather harder to predict. There are heavy snow in northern hemisphere, while other part of the earth facing extreme heat and in same time, some places has drained out of water, but the capital city of Indonesia has over supply of rain water and has no where to drain to. At least none at this time.

Flood of Jakarta is not a new story, but it's been a regular visitor. But the big issues is it now becomes more often. As many years ago, historian recorded that Jakarta is flooded in 1930s. Then it has never experience that scale of flood until 1996. Then to hid the real thread, official said the event only occur every 5 year. As predicted, in 2002 and 2007 there is big flood in Jakarta with more than 60% city's surface is covered by flood water. But this 5-year cycle doesn't last long. As the weather goes more extreme, and lack of master plan to overcome the problem, now flooding in Jakarta is about regular ritual.

Its nature maybe cause of heavy rain fall and tidal. But it's our fault to build the city by omitting the nature characteristic of Jakarta. Some conservative area is now become housing area. We are more likely to develop Northern Jakarta as waterfront city more than its natural function as tidal prevent support system. And southern part, supposes support to preserve rain water now become mountain-view rest area with hundreds of villas and bungalow.

Of course I'm not a saying this as a person who capable to change it. I just feel sorry for a big country's capital where 90% of country's economical activity done here. As more often this natural strikes that causing economical lost and accessibility, sooner or later, people will think again to set company in Jakarta or headquartered in Jakarta. This is the natural way to decrease city's stress and it's a good direction in term of environmental view. But in the world driven by economical, this is disaster. Sooner or later, if this situation get worse, people will abandon this capital city.